I am honored to have been a guest on the 401st podcast for airplanegeeks.com. Great group of folks who are working hard to get accurate aviation information and news out to the world. I discussed how an aircraft accident is an emergent property that arises out of a complex system which makes accidents generally not possible to predict utilizing traditional methods. This is also related to the the work I am doing with Roger Rapoport and our book “Angle of Attack”, still in work.
Complexity is an interesting topic and not one that many people- even those involved in risk analysis or in the business of utilizing data to make predictions – understand. It was somewhat entertaining when I spoke on this topic in Pasadena a couple of weeks ago that one could pick out the physicists and other scientists in the audience as their faces lit up when I mentioned the topic of complexity. It is not a new one for physicists! An interesting aspect is that the same issues that that lead the inability to make predictions regarding accidents are, at their core, the same reasons that virtually no political pundits were able to predict that Trump would win the Republican nomination. People laughed but agreed when I pointed out that Trump is an emergent property of a complex system!
Coming back to the podcast, here it is and I encourage a listen! Captain Shem Malmquist on the airplanegeeks.com podcast.